Mobile-area home sales increase sharply in November from one year ago

Sales: According to the Mobile Area Association of Realtors, November home sales in the area increased 35.7% year-over-year (Y/Y) from 417 to 566 closed transactions. Going against seasonal trends, sales increased 12.8% from October. Sales are up 12.7% year-to-date. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.

For all Mobile-area housing data, click here.

Inventory: November listings (658) increased 4.4% from October and increased 12.5% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, all the active inventory on the market would sell in 1.3 months, unchanged from October and down from 1.4 months in November 2020. The equilibrium point where buyers and sellers have roughly equal bargaining power is 6 months of supply.

Pricing: The median sales price in November was $190,000, an increase of 5.4% from one year ago and a decrease of 9.1% from October. The differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Homes sold in November averaged 25 days on the market, selling 13 days faster than in November 2020.

Forecast: November sales were 135 units, or 31.3%, above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE projected 431 sales for the month, while actual sales were 566 units. ACRE forecast a total of 5,279 residential sales year-to-date, while there were 5,657 actual sales through October, a difference of 7.2%.

New construction: The 44 new homes sold represent 7.8% of all residential sales in the area in November. Total sales increased 18.9% year-over-year. The median sales price in November was $296,716, an increase of 10.3% from one year ago and a decrease of 0.4% from October.

NAR commentary: According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales increased 1.9% M/M in November, marking the third consecutive month of gains (seasonally adjusted annual rate). However, November sales decreased 2% from one year ago. The median sales price for all housing types was $353,900, rising 13.9% year-over-year and marking 117 consecutive months of year-over-year gains. Rising home prices are largely a result of low housing inventory amid sustained demand. Supply retreated in November, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago. November’s 2.1 months of supply was down month-over-month and year-over-year.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said, “Determined buyers were able to land housing before mortgage rates rise further in the coming months. Locking in a constant and firm mortgage payment motivated many consumers who grew weary of escalating rents over the last year.”

Yun added, “Mortgage rates are projected to jump in 2022; however, I don’t expect the imminent increase to be overly dramatic.”

NAR forecasts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 3.7% during 2022.

Yun also said inflation and home-price gains are expected to moderate next year. “Supply-chain disruptions for building new homes and labor shortages have hindered bringing more inventory to the market,” Yun said. “Therefore, housing prices continue to march higher due to the near-record-low supply levels.”

ACRE commentary: Home sales in Alabama rebounded in November, rising 7.8% from one year ago and bringing the year-to-date gain to 11.1%. Nineteen of the 24 markets reporting sales data to ACRE reported sales gains from one year ago.

The statewide median sales price gained 13.1% Y/Y in November, up from 11.3% in October and 9.5% in August. Price growth has accelerated as supply trended downward in recent months. Properties listed for sale declined 5% from October and 24.4% from one year ago. Unsold inventory is at 1.6 months of supply, down from 1.7 in October and down from 2.3 months in November 2020.

Click here to view the entire monthly report.

The Mobile Residential Monthly Report is developed in connection with the Mobile Area Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers.

Editor’s note: All information in this article reflects data provided to the Alabama Center for Real Estate for Nov. 1-30. Thus, the performance represented is historical and should not be used as an indicator of future results.

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