UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD: Deep tropical moisture will be pulled into Alabama over the next few days, setting the stage for relatively wet weather. We have rain on radar early this morning over parts of west and south Alabama, and showers are likely statewide later today and tonight. The sky will be mostly cloudy with a high between 78 and 82 degrees.
Wednesday will be cloudy with occasional rain and a rumble of thunder at times. Temperatures will hover between 72 and 76 degrees most of the day with widespread cloud cover. A brief waterspout or tornado is possible over Mobile and Baldwin counties thanks to the remnant circulation of Nicholas to the west. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) there.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The sky will be generally cloudy Thursday through the weekend, and each day will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Rain is most likely from noon to midnight, but a few late-night and morning showers can’t be ruled out. There’s a good chance temperatures won’t get out of the 70s Thursday; then look for highs between 80 and 83 degrees Friday through Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Moist air remains in place; for now we expect a mix of sun and clouds each day with the continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.
TROPICS: Nicholas made landfall late last night as a Category 1 hurricane along the middle Texas coast. The remnant circulation will dissipate over Louisiana by Wednesday night. Heavy rain and flooding potential are the main concerns with the system over southeast Texas, the southern half of Louisiana, and coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for this area, including Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama.
Elsewhere, an area of low pressure is expected to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic, parallel to the U.S. East Coast. A U.S. landfall is not expected at this point if the system develops.
A tropical wave just west of the African coast (Invest 95L) is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. It’s too early to know whether this will affect the Lesser Antilles or the U.S. The name of the system will be Odette if it reaches tropical storm strength.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Here is an early look at some college football weather forecasts for Saturday. Keep in mind this could change as we get closer to the weekend.
ALABAMA AT FLORIDA (2:30 p.m. CT kickoff): It will be a warm, humid day in Gainesville. The sun will be out at times, but there is a pretty decent chance of a few passing showers or thunderstorms during the game (take the rain gear). Temperatures will fall from near 87 at kickoff into the low 80s by the fourth quarter.
AUBURN AT PENN STATE (6:30 p.m. CT kickoff): A passing shower can’t be ruled out during the game in State College (especially the first half); otherwise it will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from around 79 at kickoff into the low 70s by the final whistle.
UAB AT NORTH TEXAS (6:30 p.m. CT kickoff): The sky will be clear in Denton, Texas, Saturday evening. Temperatures will fall from around 90 degrees at kickoff to near 80 by the fourth quarter.
NORTH ALABAMA AT JACKSONVILLE STATE (6 p.m. kickoff): It will be a warm, humid Saturday night; a shower or storm can’t be ruled out, mainly during the first half. Temperatures will fall from near 80 at kickoff into the mid 70s by the final whistle.
TROY AT SOUTHERN MISS (6 p.m. kickoff): A few showers are likely during the first half of the game; otherwise it will be a warm, humid night in Hattiesburg, with temperatures falling from the low 80s into the upper 70s.
ON THIS DATE IN 2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical. The St. Louis metropolitan area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike’s remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. A state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.
ON THIS DATE IN 2018: Florence made landfall in the United States just south of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane. Winds associated with the tropical cyclone were strong enough to uproot trees and power lines, causing extensive power outages across the Carolinas.
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